作者:Czhang Lin

中文翻譯:博文

日期:02/10/2018

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阿爾伯特·愛因斯坦說過:“You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.”

Global Crypto Gold Rush已經膨脹了幾個月,但現在它的下降速度甚至超過了上升速度,並且現在已經停滯不前。

2018年1CO數據


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傳統天使投資者和風險投資基金通常與項目合作,通過連接資源,提供諮詢等來創造價值。其背後的原因是確保項目的價值能够適當增長,而且允許資金在未來數月或數年的整個後期的股權融資回合中退出。在這個長期的合作過程中,種子輪投資者並沒有完全退出Pre-A或A輪,而是在他們完全退出之前等待幾輪,以便最大化獲得其利益。這裡的關鍵問題便是它是一個單向和長期的過程,如下圖所示:


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Crypto項目突然增長的原因之一是由於其“全球”融資性質:一個包含全球投資和流動性的超眾籌融資機制。行動快速的數位貨幣基金看到了手頭的機會並及時抓住了它們,也的確有在風頭占了風光。

以下三角形顯示了加密投資的典型過程:

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Step 1:團隊/項目方擁有一個好主意的尋找第一級資金作為早期投資者,以更好的價格和條件進行募資。

Step 2:由於第一級基金名稱支持該項目,團隊現在處於一個舒適的區域,可以從二級或三級基金中尋找進一步的投資。

Step 3:該團隊繼續開展全球路演,公關,行銷活動,以便在全球私人的、小型的投資者中建立關於項目價值主張及其未來增長的信念,並以實際的用戶體驗改進和使用需求為前提。項目通常會限制可供私人購買的token數量,以便在上市時吸引散戶投資者的FOMO(害怕錯過的恐慌),為預售投資者安全退出提供必要的流動性。

Step 4:金字塔的最後一部分是的產品用戶,他們將通過使用產品加入生態系統,並最好地彰顯token的真正價值。

在金字塔體系裏只要下麵還有一層,上面的投資者就有人買單/接盤,只要有更多的小型加密投資者一直進入,那麼炒作發電機就已經開始運行,而且該機制可以繼續自我迴圈。由於投資者往往尋求快速進入和快速獲得最高回報,囙此團隊通常忙於籌集資金和行銷而不是項目本身,即成為沒有真實用戶和真實項目的“空氣token”項目。

金字塔很快就崩潰了,這並不奇怪。由於沒有底層用戶,小型加密投資者不希望成為金字塔的底層來支付以前的資金帳單。在被頭部資本反復傾銷並損失一定數額的資金後,這些散戶投資者吸取了教訓,從此變得保守與被動。

新的底層基金是二級和三級基金,因為它們沒有獲得與第一級相同的價格。這些資金無法為其買單,他們很快就吸取了教訓,並且從此變得保守與被動。

現在在這個階段,只剩下2名玩家:項目和一級基金。項目意識到,在向投資者發送承諾的token後,折扣最低的一級基金很可能會在市場上拋售,希望能夠維持高回報,然後項目需要以更高的成本買斷它們以穩定市場價格。囙此,項目會嘗試尋找不釋放token的所有藉口。

與傳統投資市場不同的是,由於投資週期短、進度快,在crypto領域的投資者通常無暇顧及為項目發展賦能。而與之相反,項目和投資機構花費了更多的精力聚焦在價格和投資額度上,上幣後結果成為彼此的對手。逐漸地,遊戲的車輪停止轉動,金字塔也已倒塌。

也許,這是泡沫爆發的演變週期,以便讓所有參與者重新思考並回歸存在的核心價值。核心價值確實是用戶對產品的需求,而這一切都應該重新啟動。

除此之外,一級基金應該更有耐心,應該提供比傳統投資更有價值的資源和諮詢;項目應重新關注實現其承諾,並瞄準金字塔的最底層:用戶。隨著用戶群的增長,金字塔將再次從基地重建,小型加密投資者將有機會從次級市場購買其投資,而二級和三級基金可以購買更多的token,且更合理的協商價格和鎖定條款。

最後的經驗教訓是創建一個具有準確消費者需求的產品,並設計正確的token經濟學以促進其價值增長,這將在下一篇文章中繼續探討。


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Author:Czhang Lin

Date:02/10/2018

 

Albert Einstein: “You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.”

The Global Crypto Gold Rush swelled for a couple of months, but it went down even fasterthan it went up, and has stagnated to where we are now.


Global IC0 Raised Value by Month


Source:https://www.coinschedule.com/stats.html


Traditional Angel Investors and VC funds usually work together with the projects to create value by connecting resources, providing consultancy, etc. The reason behindthis is to make sure the project can properly grow in value, allowing funds toexit in later equity rounds throughout the months or years to come. In this long-term co-operating process, theseed round investors don’t fully exit in Pre-A or A rounds, but wait for a coupleof rounds before they can fully exit, in order to maximize the amount of valuecaptured. The key lesson here is that it’s a uni-directional and long-termprocess, as displayed in the following figure:

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venture_capital


One of the reasons for the sudden growth of Crypto projects is due to its “Global” fundingnature: a hyper crowd funding mechanism allowing for global investments andliquidity. Fast moving token funds saw the opportunity at hand and took theirchance and did earn a good piece of the pie.

 

The following triangle displays the typical process of the Crypto investment:


Step 1: Teams/ projects with a great idea look for 1st tier funds to invest asthe early investor with better prices and conditions.

 

Step 2: With 1st tier fund names backing the project, the teams are now in acomfortable zone to find further investment from 2nd or 3rdtier funds.

 

Step 3: The team continues to do global road shows, PR, marketing campaigns to create a belief among global retail investors about the project’s value proposition andits future growth, premised on real user adoption and usage need. Projects typicallylimit the amount of tokens available for private sale so as to induce FOMO fromretail investors upon listing, providing the necessary liquidity for presaleinvestors to safely exit.

 

Step 4: The last part of the pyramid is the supposed product users that will join the ecosystemby using the product and that best displays tokens true value.



With in the pyramid, the following part are buying the bills of the previous ones andas long as there are more retail Crypto investors coming in, then the hypegenerator has worked and the mechanism can continue to propel itself. Since investorsare seeking for a fast in and fast out for the highest possible return, theteams are usually busy with fund raising and marketing instead of the projectitself, aka “air token” projects without real users and real projects.

 

It is not surprising that the pyramid collapsed soon after. Since there are no users atthe bottom and retail crypto investors don’t want to be the base of pyramid topay the bills of previous funds. After being repeatedly dumped on by funds andlosing a certain amount of funds, these retail investors learned their lessonsand have since become investment passive.


The new bottom base are the 2nd and 3rd tier funds, as they don’tget the same price offers as the first one. These funds can’t afford to pay forthe bills and learned their lesson as well soon after, and have since becomeinvestment passive.

 

Now at this stage, there are only 2 players left: the projects and first tier funds. The projects are aware that afterreleasing the promised tokens to the investors, the first tier funds with thelowest discounts will most likely dump in the market hoping to sustain its highreturn, where the projects will then need to buy out at a higher cost tostabilize market prices. Hence, the projects try all excuses it can find to notrelease the tokens.


The fundamental process of investors supporting projects back in traditional investingwas unsustainable in most cases in crypto. Instead, the projects and funds spentmuch more energy fighting over price and quota, and as a result, became enemyof each other.  The wheels for such agame have stopped, and the pyramid has collapsed.

 

Perhaps,it’s an evolution cycle for the bubble to burst so as to allow all participantsto rethink and come back to the core value of existence. The Core value is indeedthe need of the product for the users, and that’s where it shall all restart.

 

Besides that, 1st tier funds ought to be more patient and should providemore valuable resources and consulting as in traditional investments; theprojects shall refocus on delivering its promises first and target the verybottom of pyramid: the users. With the growth of the user base, then pyramidwould reconstruct from base again and retail Crypto investors will have the opportunityto buy from the secondary market for its investments, whereas 2ndand 3rd tier funds can buy a larger piece of the total token poolfrom projects at more reasonable negotiated prices and lock up terms.

 

The final lesson learned is to create a product with accurate consumer needs and todesign correct token economics to leverage its growth, which will be continuedin the next article.